The mutual tourist flow between Russia and China is projected to grow by 60 percent in 2026, reaching 4 to 4.5 million trips, according to Nikita Kondratyev, Director of the Department for Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects at the Russian Ministry of Economic Development.
Speaking to RIA Novosti on July 20, Kondratyev provided detailed breakdown of the growth: “If we look at the first three to four months of 2026, our overall growth stands at 60%. About 25% of that is growth in Chinese visitors traveling to Russia, while travel by Russians to China is up around 60%”. In absolute terms, the ministry expects bilateral tourist trips to reach 4 to 4.5 million this year.
The figures are consistent with projections from the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), which forecasts that by the end of 2026, the number of Russian tourist trips to China will increase by 40–50%, with growth in the organized tourism segment potentially reaching 70% year-on-year.
Official border service data shows that in 2025, the number of Russian citizens traveling to China increased by 30.1% year-on-year, reaching 2,469,020 trips. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, China received 690,069 Russian citizens, a 53.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025.
China has emerged as the top source of foreign tourists to Russia. In the first quarter of 2026, Russia received 293,200 foreign tourists, a 28.1% increase year-on-year. Chinese tourists topped the list with 154,200 visitors, accounting for more than half of the total foreign tourist flow.
The visa-free travel regime has been a key driver of this growth. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko noted that by the end of 2027, mutual trips are expected to reach up to six million if the current pace continues.
Tourism industry representatives have observed a shift in travel patterns. While Hainan Island previously dominated as the primary destination for Russian tourists, interest in mainland China and combined routes is growing rapidly. Some tour operators have seen demand for such programs increase two- to threefold over the past year.
